 |
| Professor and researcher Camilo Andrés Micán Rincón, one of the authors of the investigation. Credit: Communications Office, Faculty of Engineering. |
As part of their strategic and organizational development plan, both private and public sector companies periodically carry out projects aimed at improving their performance in their different areas. These projects are subject to all kinds of risks, including those of an economic and operational nature, which jeopardize the achievement of the expected results. A study conducted at the Universidad del Valle broadens the scope of analysis of this problem and proposes a pioneering analysis model of its kind, the results of which could become the cornerstone for risk analysis in the industry's project portfolios at the regional and national levels.
Lea el artículo en español aquí.
Risk assessment of the project portfolio, the aspect to consider
When a company intends to initiate a project, risk assessments traditionally revolve around compliance with the assigned schedule and budget, leaving out of consideration a much more complex and complete stage, which has to do with analyzing projects as initiatives whose objectives are interrelated with each other, where their impacts on organizations cannot be seen in isolation and which is called project portfolios. Given the low level of this type of evaluation, known as "Project Portfolio Risk Assessment" (PPRA), the professor and researcher of the School of Industrial Engineering, Camilo Andrés Micán Rincón, conducted a research that sought to determine how the leaders of project offices in the business sector of Valle del Cauca, as well as other organizational actors related to projects, perceive the "risk of a portfolio of projects", and from this he proposed a risk assessment model applied to such portfolios. The results were presented at the International Conference on Project Management -ProjMAN-, one of the most recognized conferences in the area of project management and subsequently published in the specialized journal Procedia Computer Science.
"In the world of projects, I start analyzing risks at the project level in particular. As I begin to approach organizations in Valle del Cauca, I begin to recognize that there is a need beyond projects, which is that of portfolios. That is to say: that sometimes it is not so important that the project is delayed, but that it fulfills its strategic purpose, that it achieves the impact that the organizations want", says the researcher Camilo Andrés Micán Rincón, and adds that the research, during its first phase, sought to determine, within a group of mature companies in aspects related to project banks, what the concept of risk of a project portfolio meant.
Breaking down risk: levels of analysis and meta-networks
According to professor and researcher Camilo Andrés Micán Rincón, there are three main dimensions when analyzing a project: the scope of its results, the time it will take and the cost associated with these activities. At this point of analysis, called "project levels", the concern lies in the correct execution of the project, for which an adequate planning is needed. "So that it is as close to reality as possible: that the budget is sufficient, that the time in which I plan it is realistic and that what I am going to deliver at the end, regardless of what it is, is done within the characteristics of the deliverable," he explains.
However, there is a point at which portfolios come into play, which brings up a higher level of analysis, "portfolio levels". "If the purpose is to plan and execute projects well, the vision of the portfolio is to realize the projects which are necessary for this purpose. Because, at the project level, for example, if I build a five-story building for classrooms, and it turns out that what was really required was a floor of laboratories or a floor of intelligent classrooms, it turns out that in the end I did the project very well, but I did not do the one that was necessary," explains professor and researcher Camilo Andrés Micán Rincón.
The objective of this second level is to select the projects which, as a whole, translate into the greatest benefits for the organization or company that is analyzing them. After the evaluation of each one, an integration process begins, where the points in common with each other and their interference in the successful achievement of the objectives at the macro level become evident.
For the research, a meta-network approach (MNA) was used, composed of a first part focused on the relationship between the projects as such, in addition to others that accounted for the relationship between the project deliverables, on a more specific scale of the projects. The coexistence of these multiple connections is what gives the name to the chosen analysis methodology. "In that sense, 1 or 2 projects can help make a large deliverable. And a project can participate, in turn, in deliverable 1 and 2. And also in deliverable 2 other projects can participate. The networks are connected among themselves, the projects among themselves and, likewise, the deliverables," explains professor and researcher Camilo Andrés Micán Rincón, adding that there is also an additional network of strategic objectives, which are not independent of the process created in the previous one. "Strategic objective 1 is related to 2 and 3, and project deliverables provide results for those objectives. In addition, there are the risk factors, which also interact with each other."
The relationship between the project network, a network of deliverables, a network of strategic objectives and a network of risks motivated the research to approach its analysis through a meta-network approach, based on the idea that these connections in turn represented a common cycle, which allowed a more global view of risk for project portfolios.
The case study: validation of an innovative model
This research, which began as part of Professor Camilo Andrés Micán Rincón's doctoral studies at the University of Minho, Portugal, within the company of professors and researchers Maria Madalena Teixeira Araújo from the University of Minho and Gabriela Fernandes from the University of Coimbra, has been in progress for more than 4 years and started with a first phase dedicated to reading the state of the art in relation to project portfolios and how to assess their risks. This exploration allowed him to establish that, although there is a vast specialized literature dealing with project risks or the financial risk of companies as such, there was very little clarity regarding the risk related to project portfolios.
For this first part of the research, professor and researcher Camilo Andrés Micán Rincón worked with around 27 companies in Valle del Cauca, specifically through their project offices, by means of semi-structured interviews, composed of different blocks that sought to know what this type of risk was for them, what their measurement parameters were, what elements should be considered, at what point in the project process they should be measured, and how they thought the most appropriate way to visualize this risk would be.
"27 project office leaders and organizational directors were interviewed, and subsequently an analysis of these interviews was carried out to determine how project portfolio risk was viewed, and by what characteristics it was composed," says professor and researcher Camilo Andrés Micán Rincón, and adds that, once the information was obtained, the meta-network model was used, given its suitability for the research, and the process of validating the analysis model was begun, this time with actual information from one of the companies participating in the previous process.
Starting from the premise that it was necessary to establish the first approaches on how to measure the risks of project portfolios, given the little scientific information available on the subject, professor and researcher Camilo Andrés Micán Rincón states that the results obtained were satisfactory: "The important thing for us was to demonstrate the portfolio risk, that the proposed model represented the situation adequately, and for that reason it was very important to do it with real data. So that the company could confirm the real possibility of certain risk scenarios occurring, and that they could make decisions based on what the model was indicating. In the end risk modeling is, in a way, modeling the future."
The results obtained through this analysis exercise, by means of mathematical representation, showed that the proposed model is going in the right direction, since it evidences the consistency and adequate representativeness of the information.
Forward-looking impact for the industrial sector: a tool for anticipating future uncertainty
"I feel that there is a lot of expectation regarding this topic, a lot of way forward. In the first place, because it is transversal to any type of organization: a university, an NGO, a bank, a manufacturing company. In the end, all of them have a strategic deployment," says professor and researcher Camilo Andrés Micán Rincón, regarding the impact that this type of analysis could have on the industry in the immediate future.
Currently, the research is in a broader phase, where new elements have been integrated into the analysis. This implies a more robust work than the one presented so far, with the inclusion of data visualization, so that the entire scientific and industrial community is aware of the advances in risk assessment of project portfolios that are being carried out.
If interested in being in touch with the researcher or any further information about the investigation, please write the Faculty of Engineering Communications Office: comunicaingenieria@correounivalle.edu.co.
Comentarios
Publicar un comentario